Defense and Aerospace Stocks in an Era of Global Conflict: Where Smart Money Is Flowing

In February 2025, Germany did something it hadn’t done since the fall of the Berlin Wall: it dismantled its constitutional debt brake to unlock a 500 billion euro infrastructure and defense spending package. Within weeks, the Rheinmetall share price surged past 1,000 euros — a stock that had traded below 100 euros just three years earlier. That single political decision created more shareholder value in one quarter than most tech startups generate in a decade. And Germany was just one domino in a global chain reaction of defense budget expansions that has fundamentally rewritten the investment thesis for aerospace and defense stocks.

If you’ve been watching the markets through a purely tech-sector lens, you may have missed one of the most powerful secular trends of the 2020s. Global defense spending crossed $2.4 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach $3.1 trillion by 2030. NATO nations are scrambling to hit — and increasingly exceed — the 2% of GDP defense spending target. The war in Ukraine grinds on into its fourth year. Tensions across the Taiwan Strait continue to simmer. The Middle East remains a volatile tinderbox. And in this environment, defense contractors are not just benefiting from a cyclical uptick — they’re riding a structural shift in how the world allocates resources.

This article examines where the smart money is flowing within the defense and aerospace sector. We’ll break down the major contractors, explore the emerging AI-powered defense ecosystem, compare the leading ETFs, and lay out practical portfolio strategies for investors who want exposure to this megatrend without taking on unnecessary risk.

The Geopolitical Landscape Reshaping Defense Spending

To understand why defense stocks have entered what many analysts call a “super-cycle,” you need to understand the three geopolitical pressure points driving governments worldwide to open their checkbooks.

The Ukraine-Russia War: Europe’s Wake-Up Call

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shattered decades of European security assumptions. The conflict has evolved into a grinding war of attrition that has depleted weapons stockpiles across NATO countries. European nations discovered, to their alarm, that they couldn’t sustain high-intensity conventional warfare for more than a few weeks with existing inventories.

The response has been dramatic. NATO’s 2024 summit in Washington raised the floor from 2% to what many members now treat as a 2.5% to 3% target. Poland is already spending over 4% of GDP on defense — the highest in the alliance. The European Union launched the EDIP (European Defence Industrial Programme) with the goal of spending 1.5% of GDP on defense by 2030.

The war has also changed what militaries are buying. Demand for artillery shells, drones, air defense systems, and electronic warfare equipment has skyrocketed. Companies that manufacture these systems — Rheinmetall for ammunition, RTX for Patriot missiles, Northrop Grumman for integrated air defense — have seen their order backlogs swell to record levels.

The Taiwan Strait: The Pacific Powder Keg

While Ukraine dominates headlines, the defense budgets of Pacific nations tell a parallel story. Japan passed its largest-ever defense budget in fiscal year 2025, committing to $56 billion in military spending — a dramatic departure from decades of pacifist-leaning budgets capped near 1% of GDP. Australia’s AUKUS partnership continues to drive billions in submarine and long-range strike procurement. South Korea, the Philippines, and India are all ramping up spending.

The driver is China’s accelerating military modernization and increasingly assertive posture around Taiwan. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has been the fastest-growing regional budget within the Pentagon, and much of the spending is flowing into areas that directly benefit publicly traded defense companies: long-range missiles, naval shipbuilding, satellite communications, and advanced radar systems.

Middle East Tensions and the Abraham Accords Fallout

The Israel-Hamas conflict that erupted in October 2023 and its broader regional consequences have further accelerated defense procurement across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf states have increased arms imports. Israel’s Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems have proven the value of layered missile defense, driving demand for similar capabilities worldwide.

U.S. foreign military sales (FMS) — a major revenue channel for American defense primes — hit $80.9 billion in fiscal year 2025, up from $65 billion the prior year. These government-to-government arms deals provide high-margin, long-duration revenue streams for contractors.

Global Defense Spending by the Numbers

These numbers tell a clear story: defense spending growth is broad-based, multi-regional, and accelerating. This isn’t a single-conflict phenomenon — it’s a global rearmament cycle driven by the return of great power competition.

Major Defense Contractors: The Big Five and Beyond

The U.S. defense industrial base is dominated by five prime contractors — Lockheed Martin, RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, and L3Harris Technologies. Together, these five companies account for roughly 35% of all Pentagon contract dollars. But the investment story extends well beyond American borders, with European giants like BAE Systems and Rheinmetall experiencing their own renaissance.

Lockheed Martin (LMT): The Undisputed King

Lockheed Martin remains the world’s largest defense contractor by revenue, with annual sales exceeding $71 billion. The company’s dominance rests on four pillars: the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program (the most expensive weapons system in history, with a projected lifecycle cost of $1.7 trillion), its missile defense portfolio, its space systems division, and the classified “skunk works” advanced development programs.

The F-35 program alone provides a massive, predictable revenue stream. With over 1,000 aircraft delivered and international orders continuing to grow — most recently from Greece, Czech Republic, and Singapore — the production line is locked in through the 2040s. But what excites analysts most is Lockheed’s backlog of $176 billion, representing nearly 2.5 years of revenue visibility. That backlog grew 14% year-over-year in the most recent quarter.

Lockheed also benefits from the hypersonic weapons race. The company is developing multiple hypersonic strike platforms for the U.S. military, a category where global demand is surging as nations seek to counter advances by China and Russia.

RTX Corporation (RTX): The Missile and Engine Powerhouse

RTX, formed from the 2020 merger of Raytheon and United Technologies’ aerospace businesses, is a unique hybrid. Its Pratt & Whitney division makes engines for both military (F-35, F-15EX) and commercial aircraft, while its Raytheon division is the world’s leading missile manufacturer.

The Patriot air defense system has become the global standard for medium-to-long-range missile defense, with demand exploding since Ukraine demonstrated its effectiveness against Russian ballistic missiles. RTX has been awarded billions in new Patriot orders, and the company is investing heavily in expanding production capacity. The same story applies to its Stinger missiles, AIM-9X Sidewinders, and Tomahawk cruise missiles.

RTX’s commercial aerospace exposure (through Pratt & Whitney and Collins Aerospace) provides diversification that pure-play defense companies lack. With commercial air travel continuing to recover and airlines placing record orders for new fuel-efficient aircraft, this dual exposure is a genuine advantage.

Northrop Grumman (NOC): Stealth, Space, and Nuclear Modernization

Northrop Grumman occupies some of the most strategically critical niches in defense: the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, the Sentinel ICBM replacement program (GBSD), and a growing portfolio of space and cyber capabilities.

The B-21 Raider is the first new American bomber in over 30 years, and it’s moving from development into low-rate production. The Air Force plans to procure at least 100 aircraft, representing a program value well north of $80 billion. Similarly, the Sentinel ICBM program — which will replace the aging Minuteman III missiles — is one of the most expensive single programs in Pentagon history.

Northrop’s space division is equally compelling. The company builds satellites, space launch vehicles (via its Pegasus and Minotaur rockets), and provides critical components for classified intelligence community programs. With the Space Force’s budget growing rapidly and commercial space defense applications expanding, this segment offers strong long-term growth potential.

General Dynamics (GD): Submarines, Tanks, and IT Services

General Dynamics has a more diversified portfolio than many investors realize. Its four segments — Marine Systems, Combat Systems, Technologies, and Aerospace (Gulfstream) — provide exposure to naval shipbuilding, armored vehicles, IT/cybersecurity services, and business aviation.

The Marine Systems division is the crown jewel for defense investors. General Dynamics’ Electric Boat subsidiary builds the Virginia-class attack submarines and is the lead contractor for the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine — the U.S. Navy’s top acquisition priority. With the AUKUS agreement adding Australian submarine demand to an already strained production capacity, this segment has exceptional visibility extending into the 2040s.

The Combat Systems division manufactures Abrams tanks and Stryker armored vehicles, both of which are seeing renewed demand as NATO nations recapitalize their ground forces in response to the Ukraine conflict.

L3Harris Technologies (LHX): The Communications Backbone

L3Harris is the defense sector’s “picks and shovels” play. The company provides the communications, electronic warfare, and intelligence systems that enable every branch of the military to function. Its radios, sensors, and C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) systems are embedded across virtually every major weapons platform.

L3Harris completed its acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne in 2023, adding solid rocket motor manufacturing to its portfolio — a strategically critical capability given the surge in missile demand. The company’s focus on mid-tier systems and components gives it broad exposure to defense spending increases without the concentration risk of a single mega-program.

European Champions: BAE Systems and Rheinmetall

BAE Systems is Europe’s largest defense company and a major player in U.S. defense through its BAE Systems Inc. subsidiary. The company builds the Eurofighter Typhoon, Astute-class submarines for the Royal Navy, and a range of electronic warfare and intelligence systems. BAE has been a primary beneficiary of the UK’s defense spending increases and AUKUS-related submarine work.

Rheinmetall has been the most dramatic success story in European defense. The German company’s stock has increased roughly tenfold since 2022, driven by massive orders for ammunition, armored vehicles (the Lynx and Panther platforms), and air defense systems. Germany’s 500 billion euro special fund and the broader European rearmament wave have transformed Rheinmetall from a mid-cap industrial company into a large-cap defense champion.

Defense Contractor Comparison Table

AI-Powered Defense: The New Frontier

The most exciting — and potentially most disruptive — part of the defense investment landscape isn’t the traditional prime contractors. It’s the emerging class of technology companies that are bringing artificial intelligence, machine learning, and autonomous systems to the battlefield. This is where the growth rates are steepest and the competitive dynamics most fluid.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR): The Data Intelligence Platform

Palantir has evolved from a controversial intelligence community startup into one of the most important software companies in the defense ecosystem. Its Gotham platform, used by intelligence agencies and military commands worldwide, provides the data integration and analysis layer that makes sense of the firehose of information from satellites, drones, signals intelligence, and human intelligence.

But it’s the company’s newer AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) that has defense analysts most excited. AIP essentially allows military operators to deploy large language models and AI-driven decision-support tools on classified networks — something no other company has achieved at scale. Palantir’s government revenue has been growing at 30%+ year-over-year, and its net dollar retention rates exceed 115%, meaning existing government customers keep spending more.

The stock isn’t cheap — Palantir trades at a premium that reflects its unique position as essentially the “operating system” for AI-enabled defense. But for investors who believe AI will fundamentally transform military operations (and who are comfortable with a high-growth valuation), Palantir represents a differentiated bet that no traditional defense prime can replicate.

Anduril Industries: The Private Disruptor (Pre-IPO)

Anduril Industries, founded by Palmer Luckey (of Oculus VR fame), has rapidly become one of the most closely watched companies in defense technology. Still private as of early 2026, Anduril’s last valuation exceeded $14 billion, and an IPO is widely expected in the next 12-24 months.

What makes Anduril unique is its approach: rather than building hardware for specific government requirements, the company develops autonomous systems — drones, counter-drone systems, undersea vehicles, and its Lattice software platform — using venture-capital-style development cycles. This “build first, sell second” model has produced products like the Altius family of autonomous drones and the Roadrunner interceptor, a reusable drone designed to shoot down incoming cruise missiles at a fraction of the cost of traditional interceptors.

While you can’t buy Anduril stock today, investors should keep it on their radar. The company’s IPO could be one of the most significant defense-sector listings in decades, and it may pressure traditional primes to accelerate their own technology investments.

Other AI Defense Players to Watch

Beyond Palantir and Anduril, several other companies are carving out significant positions in the AI defense market:

• Shield AI (private) — Builds the Hivemind autonomy stack that enables drones to operate without GPS or communications, critical for contested environments. Recently valued at over $5 billion.
• Kratos Defense (KTOS) — Publicly traded manufacturer of high-performance drone targets and tactical drones, including the XQ-58A Valkyrie and the new Erinyes attritable combat drone. Revenue has nearly doubled since 2022.
• AeroVironment (AVAV) — The leading U.S. manufacturer of small tactical drones (the Switchblade loitering munition used in Ukraine) and the Puma/Raven reconnaissance drones used by infantry worldwide.
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) and Archer Aviation (ACHR) — eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) companies that have secured defense contracts for next-generation aerial logistics and troop transport.

Cybersecurity and Space: The Expanding Battlefield

Modern warfare doesn’t just happen on the ground, at sea, and in the air. Two additional domains — cyberspace and outer space — have become critical battlefields, and the companies operating in these spaces represent some of the most compelling defense-adjacent investment opportunities.

Cybersecurity: The Invisible Front Line

The line between defense and cybersecurity has effectively dissolved. Nation-state cyber attacks are now a constant feature of geopolitical competition, and governments worldwide are dramatically increasing cybersecurity spending. The U.S. Cyber Command’s budget has grown to over $15 billion annually, and virtually every Western government has established or expanded a dedicated cyber defense agency.

For investors, this creates opportunities in several publicly traded companies:

CrowdStrike (CRWD) has become the dominant endpoint security platform for both government and enterprise customers. The company’s Falcon platform, powered by AI-driven threat detection, protects more than 30 federal agencies and is increasingly embedded in defense supply chain security requirements. CrowdStrike’s annual recurring revenue exceeds $4 billion, growing at 30%+ year-over-year, with government representing its fastest-growing vertical.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) provides the network security and zero-trust architecture that forms the backbone of government cyber defenses. The company’s platformization strategy — consolidating multiple security functions into a single platform — has resonated strongly with government buyers who are tired of managing dozens of point solutions. Palo Alto’s government segment has been growing at 25%+ and the company is increasingly involved in classified programs.

Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) is the quintessential government cybersecurity play. The consulting and technology firm derives over 97% of its revenue from U.S. government customers, with a heavy concentration in defense and intelligence cyber operations. Booz Allen’s involvement in classified cyber programs makes it uniquely positioned, and its organic revenue has been growing at a consistent 12-15% annually.

Space and Satellite: The Ultimate High Ground

Space has become the single most contested domain in great-power competition. The ability to operate — and deny adversaries the ability to operate — in space now underpins virtually every modern military capability, from GPS-guided munitions to satellite communications to intelligence gathering.

The SpaceX Effect: While SpaceX is not publicly traded, its impact on the defense space market is impossible to ignore. The Starlink satellite constellation has been a game-changer in Ukraine, providing communications resilience that traditional military systems couldn’t match. SpaceX’s Starshield program (the classified military variant of Starlink) is expanding rapidly, and the company’s dominance in launch services means virtually every defense satellite rides on a Falcon 9 or will eventually fly on Starship. For investors, SpaceX’s private status is frustrating but not a dead end — several publicly traded companies benefit directly from SpaceX’s activities.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) has emerged as the most investable pure-play space company for defense-oriented portfolios. The company’s Electron rocket has become the preferred launch vehicle for small defense and intelligence satellites, and its larger Neutron rocket (expected to fly in 2026) will compete directly for medium-lift national security launches. Rocket Lab’s space systems division, which builds satellites and spacecraft components, has been growing even faster than its launch business — government contracts now represent over 50% of backlog.

L3Harris Technologies (LHX) and Northrop Grumman (NOC), already discussed as traditional defense primes, are also major space defense players. L3Harris builds reconnaissance and communications satellites for the Space Force and intelligence community, while Northrop builds the James Webb Space Telescope’s successors and critical missile warning satellites.

Other space defense names worth monitoring include:

• Redwire Corporation (RDW) — Specializes in space infrastructure, including solar arrays and in-space manufacturing for defense satellites.
• Terran Orbital (acquired by Lockheed Martin) — Now part of Lockheed’s space division, building small satellites for the Space Development Agency’s proliferated constellation.
• Planet Labs (PL) — Operates the world’s largest fleet of Earth observation satellites, increasingly used for defense and intelligence applications.

Defense ETFs Compared: ITA, XAR, PPA, and DFEN

For investors who want broad defense exposure without the concentration risk of individual stocks — or who simply don’t want to spend hours analyzing contractor backlogs — defense-focused ETFs offer an efficient solution. But not all defense ETFs are created equal. Their construction methodologies, weightings, and fee structures differ meaningfully, and choosing the right one depends on your investment objectives.

iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

ITA is the oldest and most widely held defense ETF, with over $7 billion in assets under management. It tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index, which means it’s a market-cap-weighted fund that heavily tilts toward the largest defense companies.

The concentration is significant: RTX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing together typically account for 35-40% of the fund. This means ITA behaves largely like a bet on the Big Three, with some diversification from mid-cap defense names. The expense ratio is a reasonable 0.40%.

ITA is best suited for investors who want straightforward, large-cap-focused defense exposure and are comfortable with the concentration in a few mega-cap names.

SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR)

XAR takes a fundamentally different approach. It tracks the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index using an equal-weight methodology, which means smaller defense companies get the same initial allocation as giants like Lockheed Martin.

This construction gives XAR significantly more exposure to mid-cap and small-cap defense names — companies like Kratos, AeroVironment, Mercury Systems, and Curtiss-Wright. As a result, XAR tends to have higher volatility but also greater upside potential during defense spending booms, when smaller companies often grow faster. The expense ratio is 0.35%.

XAR is the better choice for investors who believe the defense spending wave will lift mid-tier companies disproportionately — a thesis supported by the Pentagon’s stated goal of diversifying its supplier base.

Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA)

PPA tracks the SPADE Defense Index, which takes yet another approach: it includes not just traditional defense contractors but also companies in adjacent sectors like cybersecurity, communications, and defense electronics. This makes PPA the broadest defense ETF, with holdings that sometimes include companies like Honeywell, Curtiss-Wright, and defense IT firms.

PPA’s modified equal-weight methodology provides better diversification than ITA without XAR’s extreme small-cap tilt. With an expense ratio of 0.57% (the highest of the three), investors pay a premium for this broader exposure. Assets under management exceed $3 billion.

Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (DFEN)

DFEN is not a buy-and-hold investment. It’s a 3x leveraged ETF that delivers three times the daily return of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index. This makes it a powerful tactical tool for short-term trades on defense sector momentum but a terrible long-term investment due to volatility drag (the mathematical decay that causes leveraged ETFs to underperform their target multiple over extended periods).

Defense ETF Comparison

Portfolio Allocation Strategies for Defense Exposure

Understanding the investment opportunity in defense is one thing. Building a well-structured portfolio around it is another. The key challenge is balancing conviction in the defense spending super-cycle against the risks of overconcentration in a single sector that is highly dependent on government policy decisions.

Understanding the Risk Factors

Before allocating capital, defense investors need to honestly assess the risks:

• Political risk: Defense budgets are set by legislatures, and political shifts can alter spending trajectories. A major peace deal in Ukraine, while unlikely in the near term, could slow European defense spending growth.
• Program risk: Major defense programs can experience cost overruns, delays, or cancellations. The Sentinel ICBM program’s cost escalation is a recent example that impacted Northrop Grumman’s margins.
• Regulatory risk: Export controls, ITAR restrictions, and changing FMS policies can affect international revenue streams.
• Valuation risk: After several years of strong performance, many defense stocks are trading at or above their historical average multiples. A sector correction driven by profit-taking or a broader market downturn could be painful.
• Supply chain risk: The defense industrial base faces capacity constraints in areas like ammunition, solid rocket motors, and shipbuilding. These constraints limit how quickly companies can convert backlog into revenue.

Three Portfolio Models for Defense Exposure

Here are three approaches to sizing defense exposure within a diversified portfolio, tailored to different investor profiles:

Conservative Approach (5-10% of equity portfolio)

This approach is appropriate for investors who want some defense exposure as a hedge against geopolitical instability but don’t want to make it a core position. The simplest implementation: allocate 5-10% of your equity portfolio to a single defense ETF (ITA or XAR) and rebalance annually.

This approach provides meaningful diversification benefit — defense stocks have historically shown low correlation to the broader tech sector and often outperform during periods of geopolitical stress when growth stocks struggle.

Moderate Approach (10-20% of equity portfolio)

For investors with higher conviction in the defense thesis, a 10-20% allocation allows for a more nuanced portfolio construction:

Aggressive Approach (20-30% of equity portfolio)

This approach is only suitable for investors with strong conviction and high risk tolerance. It builds on the moderate approach but overweights the technology and space segments, adds European defense names (Rheinmetall, BAE Systems) for geographic diversification, and may include small speculative positions in pre-revenue defense tech names.

The Dividend Angle: Defense as an Income Play

One underappreciated aspect of traditional defense stocks is their dividend profiles. The major primes have long histories of consistent dividend growth, supported by predictable government revenue streams and strong free cash flow generation.

For income-oriented investors, a portfolio of the Big Five defense primes provides a blended yield of approximately 2% with a dividend growth rate of 7-8% annually. At that growth rate, your yield-on-cost doubles roughly every 9-10 years. Combined with the capital appreciation driven by the defense spending super-cycle, this makes traditional defense primes attractive for dividend growth portfolios.

Timing and Dollar-Cost Averaging

One of the most common questions investors ask about defense stocks is whether they’ve “missed the move.” After all, the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is up over 50% from its 2022 lows. Haven’t the best gains already happened?

The short answer: probably not. While near-term pullbacks are always possible (and even healthy), the structural drivers of defense spending — great-power competition, NATO rearmament, Pacific security buildup — are multi-decade trends. The current defense spending cycle is widely compared to the Reagan-era buildup of the 1980s, which lasted nearly a decade and produced compounding returns for defense investors throughout.

That said, trying to time your entry perfectly is a fool’s errand. A more prudent approach is to dollar-cost average into your target defense allocation over 3-6 months. This smooths out entry-point risk and prevents the psychological trap of watching your full allocation drop 10% in a single-day sell-off.

Conclusion

The defense and aerospace sector is experiencing a structural transformation driven by geopolitical forces that show no signs of abating. The war in Ukraine has forced Europe into a generational rearmament cycle. Competition with China in the Pacific is driving unprecedented defense investments across Asia. And the integration of AI, autonomous systems, and space capabilities is creating new investment categories that didn’t exist five years ago.

For investors, the opportunity set is rich and varied. Traditional defense primes like Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman offer the stability of massive backlogs, consistent dividends, and decades-long program visibility. Technology disruptors like Palantir and the coming wave of AI-native defense companies (Anduril, Shield AI, Kratos) offer higher growth at higher risk. Cybersecurity firms provide dual exposure to both government and commercial security spending. And defense ETFs like XAR and ITA offer diversified access for investors who prefer a more passive approach.

The key is to size your exposure appropriately, diversify across the defense value chain (primes, technology, cyber, space), and maintain the discipline to hold through inevitable bouts of volatility. Defense spending cycles tend to be long — measured in decades, not quarters — and the current cycle is still in its early-to-middle innings.

Whether you’re building a growth portfolio, a dividend income stream, or simply looking for a hedge against geopolitical risk, defense and aerospace stocks deserve a place in the conversation. The smart money has already figured this out. Now it’s your turn to decide how to position yourself.

References

1. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) — “Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025” — sipri.org
2. NATO — “Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2025)” — nato.int
3. U.S. Department of Defense — “Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request” — defense.gov
4. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) — “Foreign Military Sales Data” — dsca.mil
5. Lockheed Martin Corporation — “2025 Annual Report and 10-K Filing” — lockheedmartin.com
6. RTX Corporation — “2025 Annual Report and Investor Presentations” — rtx.com
7. Northrop Grumman Corporation — “2025 Annual Report” — northropgrumman.com
8. General Dynamics Corporation — “2025 Annual Report and 10-K Filing” — gd.com
9. European Defence Agency — “Defence Data 2025” — eda.europa.eu
10. International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) — “The Military Balance 2026” — iiss.org
11. Congressional Research Service — “U.S. Defense Budget Overview, FY2026” — crsreports.congress.gov
12. Jane’s Defence — “Global Defence Budgets Annual Report 2026” — janes.com